Introduction: In recent years, many car companies have actively cultivated secondary suppliers and dispersed orders for CATL. In order to further bind the downstream, in the middle of last year, CATL established a power battery company with Xiaomi Automobile, BAIC Hailanxin, etc.

The "Xiaomi SU300750 three-person death accident" not only tore the scars of the intelligent driving safety controversy, but also brought the power battery supplier CATL (0. SZ) also pushed to the center of the storm.

4月2日上午，小米汽車官網客服熱線人員稱，小米SU7分為標準版、Pro版以及Max版。其中，標準版搭載的是比亞迪子公司弗迪刀片電池或寧德時代電池，兩種電池隨機混裝；而Pro版以及Max版，則僅搭載寧德時代生產的電池。

If this rough calculation is followed, there is at least a 50% chance that the standard version of the accident car involved will be equipped with CATL batteries.

Previously, when an investor asked "whether the Xiaomi SU7 car that had the accident was using the company's battery", CATL replied: It is not our battery.

Xiaomi Auto has fully cooperated with CATL. The deep binding of the two parties is the embodiment of CATL's new strategy under the trend of "decentralization" of car companies.

However, if the results of the investigation finally point to CATL, it will cast a shadow on its upcoming Hong Kong stock listing process.

2025年3月25日，寧德時代發佈公告稱，其赴港上市計劃已獲中國證監會備案，擬發行不超過2.2017億股境外上市普通股，預計募資規模至少達50億美元，是近年來港股市場最大規模IPO之一。

It is worth noting that as of the end of 970, the company's monetary funds at the end of the period exceeded 0 billion yuan, and the operating cash flow was also as high as 0 billion yuan, which can be described as quite abundant.

From a common sense point of view, such a "cash cow" company with a huge amount of cash in hand did not carry out a large-scale repurchase, but chose to go to Hong Kong for a secondary listing to raise funds. What is CATL's intention to do so?

01 bind customers

When a family is dominant, the lion king can of course walk proudly alone; But when the wolves are around, the meat is getting less and the wolves are increasing, so you need to change your strategy.

The first is that there is less "meat".

2024年，寧德時代在國內動力電池市佔率為 45.08%，雖同比2023年有所增長，但仍低於 2021 年的 52.1% 和 2022 年的 48.2%。

相應地，寧德時代動力電池系統銷量，也從2022年同比增長107%驟降至2023年的32.6%。

And the "wolves" are gradually becoming the climate. Due to supply chain security and cost considerations, many car companies have actively cultivated secondary suppliers in recent years, diversifying orders for CATL.

廣汽集團（601238.SH/02238.HK）早在2019年就引入中創新航（3931.HK）旗下公司中航鋰電作為主要電池供應商；蔚來（NIO.N）、小鵬（XPEV.N）、理想（LI.O），也投資了欣旺達（300207.SZ）；而蜂巢能源則進入了理想和吉利汽車（0175.HK）的供應鏈。

The rise of automakers or self-developed or supported battery companies and powerful competitors has made the main business of "Ningwang" power battery monopolize the domestic market, and there are several gaps.

With the acceleration of vertical integration of car companies and the awakening of bargaining power, "Ningwang" began to rethink its strategy.

Previously, CATL had long dominated the supply chain through models such as "package production line" and "lock-up agreement", but car companies complained about the high proportion of battery costs. Even Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC, bluntly said: "I am working for CATL."

For battery manufacturers, both upstream lithium mines and downstream customers must be grasped. But now it's time to choose one or the other. Only by concentrating limited resources can we make effective breakthroughs.

As a result, CATL has made a major strategic adjustment.

In terms of industrial chain layout, CATL previously focused on upstream resources and supply chain control, and shifted to a more focused on binding downstream core customers.

From 2022 to 0, CATL has invested heavily in upstream raw materials and equipment companies to ensure raw material supply and cost advantages. Now, the company has not only downplayed the publicity of upstream investment, but also successively reduced the equity of many upstream suppliers.

2024年11月和2025年1月，寧德時代相繼大幅減持了鋰礦材料龍頭上海杉杉和設備龍頭先導智慧（300450.SZ）的股份，持股比例降至5%以下，不再是這兩家供應商重要股東。

2024年10月至今短短數月內，公司又先後退出或減持永福股份（300712.SZ）、東風時代、江西昇華等至少5家鋰電產業鏈中上游企業。

On the other hand, CATL plans to invest its resources in downstream car companies and terminal applications, and strengthen cooperation with customers.

In the field of complete vehicles, CATL has successively invested in Aiways, ZEKR (ZK. NYSE), AVATR Technology (AVTA. NASDAQ), Nezha Automobile (601633.HK), Cialis (0. SH), Chery Automobile (0. SH) and other emerging and traditional car companies.

In the middle of last year, CATL established Beijing Times Power Battery Co., Ltd. with Xiaomi Automobile, BAIC Hailanxin, etc.

Most of these car companies already have overseas listing platforms.

Under the continuation of this strategy, if the listing is successful, CATL will bind vehicle customers through capital ties.

For example, the introduction of car companies as strategic investors in Hong Kong stocks, the relationship between the two sides will change from one-way supply to capital risk sharing.

If shareholders request customized battery development, CATL can use this to lock in long-term orders; Shareholders of automakers are more inclined to give priority to the purchase of CATL batteries to improve their own investment returns and form exclusive cooperation.

The use of capital cooperation as a lever to build infrastructure (such as battery swap stations and energy storage networks) with car companies can be exchanged for opening up user data or sales channels to car companies.

02 "Full internationalization" leverage

The domestic market is approaching the ceiling, and CATL has to look overseas.

Different from domestic "throwing money", binding "pure overseas" customers is another way to play. In other words, it must be "fully internationalized".

Overseas clients have put forward higher requirements for corporate governance, robustness, transparency and financing platforms.

In particular, leading customers in Europe and the United States prefer to deepen cooperation with suppliers listed on major global exchanges and with standardized governance.

H-share listings are subject to the HKEX's strict financial disclosure and corporate governance practices, a process that in itself is an international test of corporate compliance and transparency. After CATL is listed in Hong Kong, it can further improve its internal governance structure with the help of institutional constraints. Moreover, companies with a broad international shareholder base tend to have more influence.

Considering that Hong Kong stocks have a convenient conversion mechanism with the US dollar, CATL can use this platform to directly attract overseas funds, introduce more international shareholders, and provide capital support for subsequent overseas mergers and acquisitions and joint ventures.

It is worth noting that despite its abundant cash, a large amount of cash generated by CATL every year is almost quickly invested in capacity construction and maintenance, R&D and foreign investment.

According to the 320-year financial report, the company's cash inflow from operating activities in 0 years was about 0 billion yuan, but the cash outflow from investment activities in the same period was as high as 0 billion yuan, and the net cash flow for the whole year only increased by about 0 billion yuan.

而超3000億元的存量現金，或為同時推進全球多個巨型項目而儲備。

The proportion of its overseas projects in total capital expenditure jumped from 35% in 0 years to 0% in 0 years, showing the accelerating pace of its international investment.

However, most of this cash is in renminbi, and what is urgently needed for overseas expansion is foreign exchange funds and offshore financing channels.

海外建廠、運營需要大量美元、歐元等外匯儲備。寧德目前手頭的外匯，遠不足覆蓋未來需求。截至 2024 年 6 月，寧德時代美元及歐元外幣餘額，分別為 67.35 億美元及 38.58 億歐元。

與此同時，匈牙利德布勒森基地規劃總投資73.4億歐元，截至2024年終典禮結束7億歐元投入。

Of the total €70 million investment in the joint venture with Stellantis in Spain, CATL is required to contribute €00 million, equivalent to 0.0% of its current euro reserves.

If you are reluctant to directly use your renminbi reserves and exchange foreign currencies on a large scale, you will directly face the risk of exchange gains and losses and cross-border capital control.

Raising HKD/USD funds through a Hong Kong IPO can solve the problem of the source of foreign exchange funds in one step, and form a special offshore capital pool to support overseas projects.

招股書亦顯示，公司計劃將募資的20%用於補充海外營運資金，建立百億級的外幣資金池。

03 backward "going to sea" competition

Compared with its opponents, Ningde's Hong Kong stock pace is a little late.

中創新航、瑞浦蘭鈞（02301.HK）等已登陸港交所，比亞迪（002594.SZ/01211.HK）2025年初剛剛完成200億港元定向增發。

What they have achieved through Hong Kong stocks is not only capital replenishment, but also a strategic card position.

China Innovation Airlines plans to achieve 40TWh production capacity in 0 years, of which overseas production capacity accounts for 0%; Relying on Tsingshan Group's nickel ore resources in Indonesia, Ruipu Lanjun will use Southeast Asia as a springboard to radiate to the world, and form a closed loop of "nickel ore-battery-energy storage".

In terms of competition for industrial ecology, BYD has introduced Middle East sovereign funds through private placement of Hong Kong stocks to build a "battery-automaker-resource" triangle alliance.

If CATL still relies on a single domestic financing channel, it will miss the opportunity to deeply bind with international capital and industrial chain giants, and eventually fall into passivity in the formulation of technical standards and resource pricing power. Its "global leader" status may be eroded by rivals with more flexibility in capital operation.

There are wolves inside, and tigers outside.

In the global power battery market, LG Energy Solution (6752.KS), Panasonic (0. T) and other Japanese and South Korean companies are strongly squeezing CATL's overseas share by virtue of their localized production capacity and capital market advantages.

In the past few years, LG Energy Solution has been working with multinational car companies to establish joint venture battery factories, and has received real money support from the US Department of Energy. With abundant capital and policy dividends, LG Energy Solution has expanded rapidly in Europe and North America.

At the same time, another strong contender, Panasonic, plans to spend billions of dollars to build a new battery plant in Kansas, USA, also has the support of the local government.

At the same time, Panasonic is working with Tesla (TSLA. NYSE) to jointly develop 4680 battery technology in an effort to remain competitive in the next-generation battery race.

Once competitors preemptively deploy production capacity and take the lead in binding more local governments and overseas customers, CATL will be left with hard bones and difficult competition space.

Judging from the above, it can even be said that CATL is slow.

In any case, CATL has to take the first step - to introduce international capital through the Hong Kong stock platform to have the opportunity to build a more solid overseas interest community.

On the track of the power battery industry shifting from "scale expansion" to "global resource integration", Hong Kong stocks are not only a financing channel, but also a strategic hub for enterprises to build international trust and compete for the right to speak on technical standards.

The essence of CATL's journey in Hong Kong stocks is to leverage capital to leverage the global niche - this is not only about the cost of capital, but also a key leap in determining whether it can transform from a "Chinese leader" to a "world rule-maker" in the next decade. (Alpha Factory Green)