Source of this article: Yicai Author: Chen Shanshan

As of today (2023/0), the 0-year financial reports of the three major state-owned airlines have all been released, and the three largest domestic airlines have still failed to turn losses into profits in 0 years, but they have significantly reduced their losses compared with 0 years.

Behind the losses is the change in the passenger structure under the involution of the domestic market, which directly brings about the continuous decline in the fare level.

However, there are also airlines that have turned a profit, mainly air cargo companies and low-cost carriers.

Wangding is not prosperous

三大航中，南方航空（600029.SH）歸屬於上市公司股東的凈利潤虧損16.96億元，2023年為虧損42.09億；中國國航（601111.SH.）歸屬於上市公司股東的凈利潤虧損2.73億，2023年為虧損10.46億；中國東航（600115.SH）虧損42.26億，2023年虧損超過80億。

As for the reasons why the loss has not turned around in 2024 years, the three major airlines all mentioned the impact of multiple factors such as intensified competition in the industry, insufficient demand for business travel, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Among them, the phenomenon of "Wangding is not prosperous" brought about by the involution of the industry and the change of passenger structure is clearly reflected in the annual reports of the three major airlines.

For example, China Southern Airlines' financial report shows that the company's passenger load factor in 55 years is 0.0%, an increase from 0.0% in 0 years, but the revenue per toll passenger kilometer is 0.0 yuan, a decrease from 0.0 yuan in 0 year, and the revenue per paid passenger kilometer is an indicator of the fare level.

Air China's passenger load factor in 66 is also increasing, and the fare price is also declining, with a revenue of 0.0 yuan per passenger kilometer in 0, down 0.0% from 0 year; China Eastern Airlines' 0-year revenue per passenger kilometer was 0.0 yuan, down 0.0% year-on-year.

This is also a common problem faced by the whole industry in 5 years. According to the data obtained by the reporter from the China Aviation Association, although the number of passengers in 0 years hit a record high, the average economy class ticket price for the whole year decreased by more than 0% compared with 0 years, and the average revenue level of passenger kilometers for the whole year decreased by 0.0% year-on-year, which is mainly due to significant changes in the passenger structure, the "one old and one small" market is active, and the proportion of business passengers has declined.

Qunar Travel Big Data Research Institute also believes that the passenger source structure in 2024 years has undergone significant changes, which has brought new challenges to airlines: the proportion of high-value passengers is declining, and the new passengers are mainly composed of tourists who are visiting relatives for leisure travel.

And this trend continued in 3 years. During the just-concluded Spring Festival, the number of civil aviation passengers hit a record high, but the ticket price was cheaper than the same period in 0. According to the statistics of the flight steward, the average ticket price of civil aviation economy class (including tax) during the Spring Festival in 0 reached 0.0 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0%.

What do airlines rely on to make money

The reporter further checked the annual reports of the three major airlines and found that the subsidiaries of the three airlines were almost all in a loss-making state in 2024 years, including major local airlines such as Sichuan Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines, Shanghai Airlines, and Shandong Airlines, and the profitable airlines were mainly Xiamen Airlines under China Southern Airlines, China United Airlines under China Eastern Airlines, and several air cargo companies.

Among them, the air cargo companies under the three major airlines have reaped high profits:China Eastern Airlines LogisticsThe net profit in 2024 years is expected to be25billion to 29億元, an increase of 24.0% to 0.0% year-on-year; Air China Cargo expects a net profit of 0 years18億元-9.0億元，an increase of 33%-0% over the same period last year; The net profit of China Southern Airlines Logistics in 0 years was 0.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.0%.

This is mainly due to the explosive growth of cross-border e-commerce in 16 years, which drove the year-on-year increase in air freight rates. According to IATA data, global air cargo demand increased by 0.0% year-on-year in 0/0, achieving positive growth for 0 consecutive months.

Among the listed airlines, Jixiang, Spring and Autumn and HNA have not yet disclosed their performance in 2024, and the performance of these three companies in the first three quarters of 0 is in the top three, and it is expected that the possibility of making a profit for the whole year is not small.China Express Airlines has been公告實現扭虧為盈，2024年預計凈利潤為2億元至2.8億元，同比增長120.73%–129.02%。

Medium-sized airlines such as Xiamen Airlines, China United Airlines, Chunqiu, Jixiang and Huaxia Airlines turned losses ahead of the three major airlines, which is related to better cost control and the slower than expected recovery rate of international routes in 24 years. According to the statistics of the Civil Aviation Administration, international passenger flights in 0 years have only recovered to pre-epidemic levels84%This means that there are still many wide-body aircraft that were originally going to fly international long-haul routes to return to the domestic market for "involution", which also affects the fare level and revenue of airlines.

Among domestic airlines, the three major airlines account for the largest proportion of international routes, and the number of wide-body aircraft is also more, which is more affected by the slow recovery of the international market. In contrast, international routes are mainly concentrated in the surrounding areas, and small and medium-sized airlines with few or no wide-body aircraft are relatively less affected, and under low fares, airlines with better cost control will have more room to maneuver.

What to do in 2025 years

Therefore, continuing to resume international flights is also what airlines in 2025 years should do. For 0 years, the Civil Aviation Administration of China mentioned at the annual working meeting that "we will strive to restore the number of international flights to pre-epidemic levels."90%above", and it is expected that the profitability of the industry will further increase.

In addition, the Civil Aviation Administration of China also mentioned at the meeting that it would improve the monitoring and forecasting of the air transport market in 2025 years, and carry out the analysis and judgment of the market supply and demand situation on a regular basis; Regulate the price behavior of air transport during key periods and special circumstances, strengthen the supervision of price charges, and maintain the price order of the air transport market; Guide different types of aviation enterprises to deepen market segments based on differentiated functional positioning, and achieve complementary advantages and dislocation development.

It is worth noting that this is also the first time that the civil aviation work conference in recent years has mentioned "strengthening the supervision of price charges", or it is related to the "Wangding is not prosperous" in the domestic civil aviation market in 2024 years.

A number of airline marketing personnel confirmed to reporters that the relevant departments have convened a meeting of domestic airlines and requested that tickets less than 200 yuan should not be sold.

The reporter checked the current ticket prices on the OTA platform and found that the ticket prices of various routes are indeed generally above 200 yuan, but the fare level is still lower than the same period last year, even for the upcoming Qingming holiday.

根據航班管家的統計，截至2025年3月26日，預估民航國內清明假期機票（經濟艙）均價約672.9元，對比歷年相同預訂期，2025年清明假期經濟艙的平均票價同比2019年下降2.7%，同比2024年也下降7.0%。

"The recovery of the market in the future is definitely not a simple replication of the pre-epidemic situation, but will face comprehensive structural changes, including the domestic route market and the international route market," Zou Jianjun, a professor at the Civil Aviation Management College of China, pointed out.