Source of this article: Brokerage China Author: Xu Promise

For many fund managers, the unattainable "sea of stars" is a major test in front of the contract of the fund product, the fund manager is fired or laid off before waiting for the spring to bloom and the performance of the heavy stocks, which is a common phenomenon in the public appeal industry, which means that it is difficult for the fund manager to wait for a long time for the high valuation but difficult to achieve the performance of the heavy stocks in the short term, and the liquidation of the public offering product also implies that the fund manager's heavy stocks must match the performance and valuation, for the public fund products that are not actually perpetual operation, After waiting for three or five years for the performance of the track to land and the valuation is reasonable, it may mean that the product has already been forced to liquidate.

Buy medicine alone to achieve the strongest performance

In the Hong Kong stock market, which believes in fundamentals, AI and humanoid robots have almost become the marginal material for the performance ranking of fund managers.

Wind數據顯示，截至目前，公募QDII業績排名前十強基金產品，核心倉位幾乎清一色指向醫藥和消費，而重倉AI與人形機器人的相關基金經理，在公募QDII業績排名上大多處於業績墊底狀態。

Brokerage China reporters noticed that the China Universal Hong Kong Advantage Select Fund under China Universal Fund, the yield of the year has reached 71%, and the top ten heavy stocks of the fund products are all allocated to innovative drug companies, including Hexion Pharmaceutical, Kelunbo Taisheng, Innovent Biologics, Akeso Biologics, Hua Medicine, etc., only ten pharmaceutical stocks in the heavy stocks, which together occupy up to 0% of the position ratio of the fund products.

值得一提的是，匯添富香港優勢精選基金並未在基金合同上，強制規定該產品必須為主要投資醫藥賽道的行業主題性基金。2025年1月27日更新后的基金招募說明書顯示，匯添富香港優勢精選基金的股票投資對象是股價沒有充分反映價值的具有持續競爭優勢的企業。基金精選組合成份股的過程具體分為兩個層次進行：第一層次，企業競爭優勢評估。通過深入的案頭分析和實地調研，發現在經營中具有一個或多個方面的持續競爭優勢、管理出色且財務透明穩健的企業；第二層次，估值精選。基於定性定量分析、動態靜態指標相結合的原則，採用內在價值、相對價值、收購價值相結合的估值方法，選擇股價沒有充分反映價值的股票進行投資及組合管理。只要一個企業保持和提升它的競爭優勢，匯添富香港優勢精選基金就做長期投資，如果一個企業喪失了它的競爭優勢或它的股價已經超過其價值，該基金就將其出售。這顯示出匯添富香港優勢精選基金為一隻典型的全市場基金產品。

It is obvious that in the context of the popularity of AI and humanoid robots, China Universal Hong Kong Advantage Select Fund, which can buy any track, abandons the popular track and buys all quiet pharmaceutical stocks, highlighting the fund manager's calm strategy of not being tempted by the hustle and bustle of the market, but this kind of play that only looks at the fundamentals and does not look at the concept also makes the China Universal Hong Kong Advantage Select Fund shine in the QDII fund performance ranking.

The characteristics of the existence of public offerings determine the preference for "long and short".

A cruel fact is that seemingly sustainable fund products are not actually sustainable, and the performance ranking of QDII fund managers needs to be based on performance, rather than an unreachable sea of stars.

券商中國記者注意到，在全部QDII基金業績排名中，排名十強的QDII產品業績與AI與人形機器人賽道毫無關聯，排名十強的基金經理大部分依賴個股挖掘，尤其是在行業基本面大幅度改善的醫藥行業。除了排名QDII第一的匯添富香港優勢精選基金，排名QDII第二的工銀新經濟基金也放棄了AI與人形機器人賽道股。

According to the position information disclosed by ICBC New Economy Fund, the fund manager arranges all the top ten heavy stocks of the QDII product as pharmaceutical stocks, and most of the pharmaceutical stocks point to innovative drug companies with new drug clinical, new drug authorization, and new drug listing expectations, that is, the fund manager pays more attention to the most practical performance landing and fundamentals.

以上述基金第一大重倉股恆瑞醫藥為例，3月30日，恆瑞醫藥發佈2024年年度報告，全年實現營業收入279.85億元，同比增長22.63%；歸母凈利潤63.37億元，同比大幅增長47.28%；扣非凈利潤61.78億元，同比增長49.18%，營收與凈利潤均創歷史新高，其中，創新葯銷售收入占公司總銷售收入一半以上，成為增長的核心引擎。

排名第三的公募QDII南方香港靈活配置基金的業績貢獻同樣沒有藉助AI與人形機器人，該產品的前十大重倉股幾乎全部配置為港股大消費賽道股票。儘管傳統印象上的消費賽道表現低迷，但該QDII產品所重倉的消費龍頭股穿越了經濟週期，並通過強勁的業績超預期帶來股價的大幅度上行，從而推動這隻消費主題基金產品逆勢進入QDII三強。以南方香港靈活配置基金第一大重倉股泡泡瑪特為例，其發佈的2024全年財報顯示，2024年泡泡瑪特實現營收130.4億元人民幣，同比增長106.9%；經調整凈利潤34.0億元，同比增長高達185.9%。顯而易見的是，這種強勁的業績動力即在眼前的事實，足以打消基金經理對配置高估值新概念的考量。

"You can't wait three or five years for the valuation to start to be reasonable and the performance to start to be released, because at that time, either your product is gone, or your performance ranking is too poor, and you have been laid off and replaced by another fund manager." A public fund manager in South China told a brokerage China reporter that fund managers do not invest with their own money, and these funds are actually cyclical, which makes fund products not real perpetual products, and the characteristics of fund managers also include the possibility of being replaced at any time because of poor performance.

The fund judges that pharmaceutical stocks may meet the three-year performance market

For fund managers, the expectation of the performance of the innovative drug sector is more reliable than the popular concept of high valuation, and the major changes in the performance and fundamentals of the pharmaceutical industry have become the core driving logic.

Zhou Sicong, manager of Ping An Pharmaceutical Select Fund, believes that the pullback and volatility of the innovative drug market in 2025 years are expected to be smaller than in previous years. Since almost all A-share and H-share companies are expected to enter the stage of medical insurance volume this year, and at the same time, the entire innovative drug companies will enter the profit period one after another from this year, and the high prosperity of the innovative drug industry will be directly reflected in the statement, which is not available in the robot industry and the AI industry. This significant change will also lead to a significant change in the chips of innovative drugs, and the entry of incremental funds will greatly iron out the fluctuations of the innovative drug industry.

“關於後續行情走勢的節奏問題，我們建議上半年關注4月至6月初的時間節點，下半年則是8月至12月。當前正處在醫藥國際大會視窗期，今年全球70%左右的亮眼數據都來自中國企業的貢獻，中國創新葯企業集體閃耀全球。”周思聰判斷，從當前披露的年報來看，超預期和提前實現盈利的創新藥企業較多，4月份的一季報預計也將較好。下半年8月份開始進入中報季，預計中報將是創新葯企業報表顯著放量的開始，並由此開啟下半年的投資視窗。9—11月為下半年的醫藥大會數據視窗期，12月份為年底對外授權的集中落地高潮。長期來看，我們持續看好創新葯行業為期三年以上的大行情投資機會。

Peng Xinyang of China Commercial Fund pointed out that although the pharmaceutical industry as a whole is under pressure by factors such as centralized procurement and price reduction, the field of innovative drugs and medical devices still shows strong growth potential. The intrinsic reason for this lies in the encouraging and supportive attitude of medical insurance negotiations for innovative drugs. Secondly, domestic innovative drugs and innovative devices have made great progress, and some products have international competitiveness in the international market.

Peng Xinyang of China Commercial Fund emphasized that after a long period of adjustment, the overall expectations of the pharmaceutical sector may have been reduced, and the valuation and fundamentals may have room to bottom out. In addition, from the demand side, in the context of population aging, the pharmaceutical industry, as an important part of social security, has a prominent long-term allocation value.

The above-mentioned fund managers believe that the level of innovation in China is experiencing a huge leap, the world's leading innovative drugs continue to appear, and the future of innovative drugs and innovative devices may enter a process of quantitative change to qualitative change, and the investment will also pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the dynamic changes in the future of medical insurance. He also pointed out that with the development and application of AI technology in the medical field, breakthroughs may be made in AI-assisted diagnosis and drug research and development, bringing new growth points to the industry.