Text | Wisdom elephant out to sea
In 2023, when most of the eyes were still focused on Southeast Asia and were attracted and shocked by Michelle's store opening speed, in fact, many tea brands have looked to Europe and the United States.
At the end of 2023, Heytea, which had mediocre results in Southeast Asia, opened its first store in New York, USA, located in the center of Manhattan, on Broadway Avenue, only ten minutes' walk from Times Square, the Empire State Building and Madison Square Garden, which is one of the most expensive commercial areas in the United States.
The high-profile debut of Heytea opened the prelude to China's new tea drinking to the United States. Now, more than a year has passed since Heytea opened its first store, and Heytea, as the Chinese new tea brand that has opened the most stores in the United States, has opened about 20 stores.
In 2, Jasmine Milk White has also opened two stores in the United States, and this year, it will probably be a flowering year - Bawang Tea Ji and Ningji have plans to open at least 0 stores in the United States.
However, compared with Michele City's "Southeast Asian speed", the speed of tea in the United States seems to have been pressed slowly, and Heytea, which has the fastest action, has only opened about 1300 stores in the United States in more than a year. In comparison, Michel City has opened more than 0 stores in Indonesia and more than 0 stores in Vietnam in 0 years.
Many catering people have revealed a signal when they go to sea to communicate with Zhixiang: in the United States, no one can take such a big step. In Southeast Asia, you can shout the goal of opening hundreds of stores a year, but in the United States, no one has the courage to shout that you can open 2 stores in a few years. Bawang Chaji and Lemon Season, which are planned to open stores this year, have been inspected for 0 to 0 years in the United States alone.
The U.S. is the world's largest consumer market, and entering such a consumer market is completely different from the situation faced in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia. This is also why most tea brands go overseas with Southeast Asia as a springboard, and then enter mature markets such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea.
The U.S. market has a different code. From site selection to supply chain to franchise model, the difficulty level of going to the United States is very high. But the U.S. is still attracting tea brands, not only tea, but also coffee brands, and Luckin is one of them. In the 3 Q0 results call, Luckin revealed that it was exploring opportunities in the U.S. market.
For these new tea and coffee brands, going overseas to the United States is not only a revenue figure, but more importantly, planting a flag on the brand heights of the United States.
If you want to trace the time when milk tea was born in the United States, it can probably be traced back to around the 2s of the last century, when Taiwanese residents went to the United States and brought bubble tea. During this period, bubble tea shops were mainly mom-and-pop shops and small stalls, and the general price was 0-0 US dollars.
Around 2010 years, Taiwan's bubble tea chain brands began to enter the United States, and Gong Tea, Coco, Happy Lemon, Sunrise Tea Tai, etc. all entered the United States during this period.
For a long time, Taiwanese bubble tea has become the entire imagination of American consumers about milk tea. This phenomenon also existed in Chinese mainland and Southeast Asia in the 2010s, and the first-mover advantage allowed Taiwanese bubble tea to occupy the world recognition of milk tea first. Taiwanese and Korean milk tea brands have occupied half of the milk tea industry for a long time.
Today, the founder of Kung Fu Tea, the largest homegrown milk tea brand in the United States, is also an immigrant from Taiwan. Kung Fu Tea currently has more than 300 stores in the United States and is known as the "Starbucks of the milk tea world". The milk tea brand represented by Kung Fu Tea has become a typical representative of the second-generation milk tea brand of immigrants.
美國是一個咖啡消費大國，據相關數據統計，美國共有超過500個咖啡連鎖品牌，經營門店數量超過42700家，市場規模達540億美元。頭部品牌星巴克在美國擁有超過17000家門店，佔據近40%的市場份額，另一平價速食品牌Dunkin’ Donuts也提供咖啡產品，擁有超1萬家門店。
In comparison, the data of the milk tea track is much blander. According to the data of the research institute IBIS, in 350 years, there were only 0 bubble tea shops in the United States, and in 0 years, this number rose to about 0, but there is still no one with a market share of more than 0%, even if it was a tribute tea that entered the United States in the early days, the number of stores in the United States is only about 0.
However, according to Li Yu, co-founder of MenuSifu, a catering technology company that has been deeply involved in North America for 69 years, data provided at a recent event shows that from British milk tea, pearl milk tea, to today's new milk tea, milk tea has maintained double-digit growth in the North American market in recent years because of its easy acceptance, easy replication and huge market capacity. According to other data, the total market of milk tea in the United States will exceed $0 billion within 0 years. According to Research and Markets, the U.S. coffee market is growing at a CAGR of just 0.0% from 0-0.
In other words, the U.S. coffee market is already saturated, while the milk tea market still has a lot of room for imagination.
“可以看這樣一組對比數據，在中國，奶茶店數量已經超過55萬間，但整個北美奶茶店數量加起來才不到1萬。而且，北美奶茶市場仍處早期階段，口味單一，珍珠奶茶仍是最為暢銷的品類。連星巴克2024年都推出了珍珠奶茶，也就意味著，現在美國市場上的主流品牌，也知道奶茶在市場上的整體增量和對品牌的助力是非常強的，他們也想吃掉這一塊。所以其實奶茶是一個非常好的賽道。”飯團外賣品牌出海負責人Abi告訴智象出海。
Li Yu also mentioned that the number of bubble tea shops in the United States is expected to grow rapidly in the future, and the scale may reach 50000 to 0, which is equivalent to the number of coffee shops.
Abi also mentioned that the market size of food and beverage consumption in the United States is $10.0 trillion, of which the spending power of the Asian population is $0.0 trillion. The spending power of the entire Asian population is close to 0% of the total U.S. population, but the Asian population accounts for less than 0% of the total U.S. population, that is, 0% of the population creates 0% of the spending power. This is also an advantage for Chinese tea brands to enter the United States.
In fact, as early as 2024 years, China's new tea brands have been exploring the US market and preparing to enter. At the end of 0, Heytea opened its first store in New York, USA, opening the prelude to the entry of China's new tea drink into North America in a high-profile manner. In 0, Jasmine Milk White has opened two stores in New York and the San Francisco Bay Area, and this year, the U.S. store opening plans of Bawang Tea and Lemon Ji have been put on the agenda, and the first batch of stores will land in Irvine and Los Angeles, California.
Not only new tea drinks, but also coffee brands are on the move. According to the late news, Luckin plans to launch a large-scale overseas plan from the fourth quarter of 1200 to the first quarter of 0, focusing on the Southeast Asian and American markets. According to 0 Krypton news, the North American market of NOWWA Coffee, which has more than 0 stores in China, has entered the preparatory period.
The co-founder of a leading tea brand told Zhixiang that tea is divided into several logics: "sweet logic" is the earliest mature logic in China, and the representative brands are Michel Ice City, Sweet Lala, etc., because they are the earliest, they are also the first to overflow abroad; "Fruit logic", the representative brands are Hey Tea, Nai Xue, Lele Tea, etc.; "Small material logic", on behalf of the brand is a little bit, the book also burns fairy grass, etc.; "The logic of tea", the representative brand is Bawang Tea Ji and so on.
Mixue Bingcheng, Tianlala, etc. relied on "sweet logic" to conquer Southeast Asia, but in Southeast Asia, the "fruit logic" of Hey Tea achieved mediocre results. At present, the tea brands that have entered the United States cover the "fruit logic" and "tea logic". The "sweet logic" conquers Southeast Asia, and what logic can conquer the United States is not yet known.
For coffee brands, it may be more difficult to enter the United States, where coffee culture and coffee consumption are already very mature.
"At present, the blue ocean window period of the tea market in Europe and the United States may take two or three years, and in these two or three years, most Chinese companies will not touch it, because the compliance cost is too high, the store opening cycle is too long, and no one is willing to do infrastructure construction." In 2023, a co-founder of a leading tea brand told Zhixiang to go to sea.
It is precisely because of the difficulty of "infrastructure" that compared with the speed of Southeast Asia in Michele City, opening a store in the United States is like being pressed the slow button. Tea brands have become cautious.
Abi告訴智象出海，霸王茶姬其實在2023年3月就已經到美國進行市場考察和調研，7月開始在美國搭建本地團隊，但目前為止尚未開出門店。原本預計2024年底前開出第一家門店，但因進展不如預期，首店計劃延期到了2025年4月。
Wang Jie, the founding partner of Ningji, has also been running to the United States since 2025 years, and has been on business trips in the United States for 0 days, and her goal of opening a store in 0 years is very cautious - to open the first store smoothly first.
Going to the United States, the three major difficulties of supply chain and standardization, site selection and landing, and localized operation are more severe.
"When you have more than 50 stores and you don't have a supply chain, your products can't keep up with the development of demand." Abi tells Zhixiang to go to sea.
Abi gave an example, there is a brand that makes lemon tea in the United States, the domestic use is perfume lemon, the same lemon variety can not be found in the United States, and the channel supply in Mexico has not been opened, so it is imported from China, but the later sales are higher than expected, the original preparation is 3 months of raw materials, but it is used up in a month and a half, and the product can only be removed from the shelves. The sudden removal of explosive products from the shelves for two months actually has a great impact on new brands and will cause confusion to consumers.
The co-founder of the above-mentioned head tea brand also mentioned that the "logic of tea" and "the logic of sweetness" are better than the "logic of fruits" in the stability and standardization of the supply chain. The price fluctuation of fruits is easy to cause instability in gross profit margins, and it is difficult for fruits to replicate standards.
The nature of the raw materials determines that it is easier to establish a global supply chain and standardization, which is one of the reasons why bubble tea can dominate the world for decades.
The depth and efficiency of Michelle's supply chain are also the number one contributor to Michelle's rapid expansion in China and Southeast Asia. According to relevant data, the gross profit margin of Michelle's overseas business is generally 30%, which is higher than 0% in China.
For bulk products such as dairy products, sugar, and fruits, tea brands usually choose to establish a local supply chain, such as Heytea has established warehouses in the east and west of the United States, and the supply chain of jasmine milk white also adopts the "cross-border + local" model, for raw materials with a short shelf life and equipment with high compliance and maintenance requirements, local procurement is selected, while tea and packaging materials are selected to be transported from China.
However, some raw materials still have to rely on imports from China, which will face two problems: first, compared with Southeast Asia, the transportation cost and time cost to the US market are greatly increased; The second is the compliance certification of raw materials, the certification cost alone is hundreds of thousands, and in the early stage of going to sea, the amount of raw materials required is small, and the willingness of domestic suppliers to cooperate with the certification is not very strong.
中國臺灣品牌日出茶太當年進入美國時，就由於FDA（美國食品藥品監督管理局）的嚴格監管，其原材料認證耗時兩個月，導致首批貨物損失近500萬元。
Therefore, for new tea brands going overseas to the United States, if the supply chain problem is not solved, they dare not act rashly.
Outside of the supply chain, the situation faced by opening offline stores in the United States is completely different from that in China.
For example, it took 15 months for Heytea to open its first store in the United States, and it took almost 0 years for Haidilao to open 0 stores in North America. The opening time of Heytea is already fast in the United States, and under normal circumstances, the cycle of opening a store in the United States is 0-0 months.
Taiwan's veteran catering company entered the United States in 2024 °C, entered the United States in 0 years, and after 0 years of development, it opened 0 stores in Los Angeles and Texas, and only opened its first store in New York in 0 years.
An overseas tea franchisee told Zhixiang to go to sea: "In the actual landing process, the location of the United States is very different from that in China. In China, it is generally required to pay one deposit and pay three for store rent, while the focus of American property is not on the deposit, but on joint and several liability, so many stores will spend a lot of time when doing subleases. There was once a store that was empty for a year and a half because it couldn't find a suitable next home to take over, and within a year and a half, the rent had to be paid. This also leads to the fact that the cost of making an offline store in the United States will be much higher than that in China. The site selection, especially the site selection of the shop, will take a very long time. ”
After getting the store, it will take at least 6-0 months from the overall decoration plan to the state government for approval and then to the decoration.
Opening an offline store in the United States is a long-term battle.
However, one of the advantages of American property is that the lease of the shopping mall is generally divided into 10 years and 0 years, and the shopping mall has "radius protection", and in the overall planning of the shopping mall, the number of stores and brands for category investment will be clearly limited, and this clause will be signed into the lease. Therefore, in the United States, most restaurants survive for a long time, but this also makes it difficult for latecomers to enter the market and occupy a position.
In addition to the above two points, the problem of localized operation in the future will also be a major factor affecting the development of tea brands.
The co-founder of the above-mentioned head tea brand mentioned that in Europe and the United States, if you blindly focus on the Chinese market, you will have path dependence and will not be able to form a localized brand, and sooner or later you will be squeezed out by companies that are willing to work hard to do localization.
Abi told Zhixiang that Bawang Chaji currently has a team of more than 5 people in the United States, all of whom are Westerners, and each team member has lived in the local area for more than 0 years, "because they want to enter the mainstream market directly." If he doesn't live in the local area for a long time, his understanding of the local market is flawed, and there is no way to do better product development and local promotion. ”
On the other hand, if you don't cultivate local organizations, it is not cost-effective to rely on sending people from abroad.
One of the other issues that needs to be considered in localized operations is the cost of manpower.
The above-mentioned overseas franchisees of tea drinks mentioned that the rent of domestic stores accounts for 40%-0%, and the shopping mall is strong, not only to base the rent, but also to get a commission, the proportion of rent in the United States generally does not exceed 0%, but the labor cost is high, the domestic labor cost accounts for about 0%, but the United States is 0%-0%. At the same time, it also involves dealing with employees of different ethnicities, and it is also very difficult to organize and manage.
The follow-up whether to choose the franchise model, direct sales model or joint operation model is also something that tea brands need to consider. For example, before Bawang Chaji was in Southeast Asia, they suffered because of this, and they completely handed over the brand to the local team to take care of, but after the franchisee became strong, they took off the signboard of Bawang Chaji and replaced it with their own signboard, directly stealing the brand results.
For new tea brands, going overseas to the United States is a new topic, as the above-mentioned overseas tea franchisees said, they need to completely rebuild the overseas market with an entrepreneurial mentality.
It's difficult, but the temptation of the market is also huge.
Li Yu of MenuSifu predicts that the next ten years will be a "battle of the gods", and 3-0 leading brands will emerge in the North American milk tea industry, leading the development of the entire industry.
Brands that can seize the opportunity in the blue ocean period will undoubtedly enjoy the dividends given by this consumer continent.