At the beginning of this year, the start-up rate of long dramas continued to decline.

According to Detaven's statistics, as of 11/0, there were 0 start-up dramas in 0 years, a decrease of 0 from the same period last year.

In particular, the head projects that integrate large IP and large traffic have been particularly miserable since the beginning of the year, such as the large ancient costumes that have always been highly valued, and the number of startups is less than one-third of that of the same period last year.

Under the guidance of the policy of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the long video platform that is in difficulty at home and abroad has been adjusting its content ecology and operation logic.

As far as the current trend is concerned, it is obvious that various platforms are further controlling costs and optimizing content, and long-term sharp production cuts may have become the general trend, and the head projects are also facing more stringent evaluations.

A long and sharp reduction in production

The long drama industry is in a period of turmoil. At the end of last year, some platforms strongly launched the change of "cutting the number of episodes", which directly affected the preparation and production process of many projects.

Producer Susan believes that this is one of the reasons for the miserable number of start-ups of long-form dramas at the beginning of this year.

"Some filmmakers accept the request to reduce the number of episodes, then revise the script, revisit the meeting and sign the contract, which will inevitably delay the original production plan."

Some filmmakers are unwilling to accept it, so the project can only be temporarily shelved or invested on other platforms, which also requires more time and cost.

"Some simply don't talk to this platform, and a lot of projects are rushing to other platforms. No one expected that the investment amount and drama chassis such as Mango TV would also have the time to pick projects with their feet crossed. ”

Although other platforms have more options for projects, it is not possible to accept them all.

On the one hand, there are projects with limited budgets and no matter how rich they are, they can't afford to exceed the quota; On the other hand, they are also waiting to see the effect of "cutting the number of episodes", and they are more or less excited about it.

If it is just in the shock period of change, will the number of long dramas be started in the future?

Susan's view is not optimistic, "The core appeal of the platform is to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the reduction of the number of episodes of a single project does not mean that the number of overall projects will increase."Whether it is the consumer side or the supply side, confidence in traditional long dramas is declining, and it is really hard to say what the future will be.”

As she said, at the beginning of the year, the number of long dramas of "Aiyou Tengmang" was decreasing, and there was no exception, and the strategic adjustment of the platform was actually the same.

In this situation, the attitude of the platform towards the so-called "big production" is also significantly more cautious.

Lene, who works for a film and television company, revealed to Sohu Entertainment that since the beginning of this year, many major drama companies have pushed their projects, but they have been "returned" in batches by long video platforms.

"In the past, projects led by large companies were green light all the way on the platform, and the two sides sometimes signed several packages as soon as they signed a contract, and I haven't heard of anyone who has been withdrawn from the drama in batches."

howeverNow that the endorsement of the drama series is a big factory, it may no longer enjoy "special treatment" on the platform.

A traditional film and television company was withdrawn from multiple projects by the platform at one time, and another veteran company focusing on the output of costume dramas was recently withdrawn from the platform.

There is a drama series big factory code to the first line 95 students to do a male frequency drama, which was originally scheduled to start at the beginning of this year, but recently the negotiation with the cooperation platform collapsed. There is also a male frequency drama that has also been established for a long time, but because the total investment is too large, it exceeds the platform budget, and it has not passed for the time being.

At the level of the main creator, the platform is no longer willing to buy it by "looking at the face".

A big director talked about the first-line 90 flowers who want to shoot martial arts dramas, such a team was definitely a project that several platforms competed for in previous years, but now this project has not been able to pass, and the platform said that it is necessary to see the script before discussing others.

Susan analyzed, "The platform is probably determined not to blindly go to the bottom anymore, and it can't negotiate with the filmmaker in terms of price and creation, and neither of them is willing or able to pay greater costs and take higher risks, and the situation of 'quitting' in the future may only be more, not less." ”

Trust crisis

The long video platform is having a hard time, and it is also a last resort to "move the knife" for long dramas.

In recent years, the platform has mainly relied on "saving money" to maintain stability, but it is not enough to solve the fundamental profit dilemma.

iQIYI has just announced its financial report for 2024 years, although it still maintains a profitable state, but its revenue and profit have fallen significantly. Paid membership revenue, which is the main business, is also declining, and it can be inferred that the membership scale is not optimistic.

Tencent Holdings' 13-year financial report shows that Tencent Video's membership in the fourth quarter of last year was 00 million, although it maintained its leading position in the industry, it was also in a state of decline from the previous quarter.

Youku's advertising revenue in the fourth quarter of last year was affirmed by Alibaba's latest financial report, but Dawen Entertainment Group still has not come out of the quagmire of losses. Mango TV's state is relatively stable, and Mango Supermedia's performance forecast shows that its revenue and profit last year both increased slightly year-on-year.

The practice of the past few years has proved that reducing costs and increasing efficiency is the right path that long video platforms can adhere to, but there is no way to make money just by saving money, and continuing to produce good content to attract users and brands is the key to achieving a positive cycle of profitability.

Coupled with the stimulation of the outbreak of micro-short dramas, various platforms are further controlling investment costs and optimizing content output.

In addition to Mango TV's trump card is variety shows, Aiyouteng's natal life is a long drama, and the recent changes are centered on long dramas.

Judging from the trends of various platforms, the reduction of production of long dramas may have been the trend of the times, which also stems from the "crisis of confidence" in long dramas inside and outside the industry.

Last year, Su Xiao, the founder of Ningmeng Film and Television, mentioned that for the platform, 30% of the broadcast episodes were serious losses; Xie Ying, former vice president of Youku, revealed that the abandonment rate of the first five episodes of the current long video users is more than 0%, and the completion rate of the episodes is only 0-0%.

In this case, it is natural for the platform to appropriately reduce the output of long dramas, but the test is what kind of projects they should reduce in order to really make a profit.

At present, the platform chooses to take a more cautious attitude towards the head content.

The head project often means a larger investment, a longer cycle, and a higher risk, and every bet is destined to be a "big gamble".

In the past few years, the industry's pursuit of "big productions" stems from its good earning ability, and as long as the platform bets on a small number of popular and popular projects, it can get great returns in the corresponding cycle, just like the rise of "Hurricane" on iQiyi in 2023 years.

But if the broadcast effect of the "big production" is not good, it will also drag down the platform's performance for a whole year.

In the past few years, the frequent stepping on the head project has obviously made the platform at the bottom scared.

The popular formula of "big IP + big traffic" has failed again and again, and no one dares to ensure that what content will be welcomed. In the face of a market full of more uncertainties, platforms that "make it difficult to turn around" must be more cautious.

Share the risk

In terms of cost control and content optimization, the platform has made more efforts than that.

It was reported earlier that the long video platform is continuing to reduce the production budget of long dramas, and hopes to further reduce the remuneration of artists. At the same time, it also requires the filmmaker and the main creator to share the risk, put forward KPI requirements for the project before broadcasting, and the final payment will be settled on time when the results are met.

The details are known only to the people concerned. However, judging from the actions of some of the projects that have been broadcast recently, these changes have a huge impact on the industry.

"A Thousand Peach Blossoms Bloom" is not very popular, and producer Liu Ning bluntly said that "there will be no longer long episodes in the future"; When the popularity of "Love You" on iQiyi Station broke 10000, screenwriter Ou Sijia posted a blog saying "Finally waiting for you"; After the over-point conclusion of "Like a Brocade", the filmmaker added 0 more Tencent Video cloud charters.

It is difficult to say that the anxiety they show in terms of popularity, attracting new users and other data has nothing to do with the pressure of the platform.

The platform shifted some of the pressure to the filmmakers and the main creators, and Susan thought it was a reasonable move.

"It can force the whole industry to take creation more seriously, after all, perfunctory means that you can't get money, and at the same time, it can also promote the survival of the fittest in the industry, so that really good content can get more support."

But she believes that in this case, platforms should also give creators more freedom.

"In the past, the platform side interfered a lot in various aspects of the project, but some of their leaders didn't really understand the content, which may also involve some interests related to the management, actors, and directors.

Under the long-term reduction in production, many practitioners will inevitably face the embarrassment of "living less".

Taking the actors that the outside world cares about the most as an example, even if they are first-line actors, job opportunities and benefits may not be as easy to obtain as before. Some waist and tail actors are struggling to make a living, and they may also have no choice but to switch to the embrace of short and medium dramas.

Susan believes that "the upside is that the first-line actors may also be exposed to better quality projects, which in turn will be beneficial to their careers." And actors who want to go further should have more time to improve themselves, which is also a good thing. ”

However, it needs to be clear that the long video platform has not completely allowed the shrinkage of the long drama market, theyWhile reducing the budget of traditional long dramas and entering the micro-short drama track in a big way, it is also taking risks to support the creation of high-quality short dramas (usually referring to serials with less than 20 episodes), which is still a self-innovation within long dramas.

From "New Life", "Once Upon a Time by the Water" to "My Altay", it can be said that the confidence of high-quality short dramas to the platform last year was sufficient, so they made up their minds to "slim down" long dramas.

For example, at last year's Weibo Vision Conference, Xie Ying, then vice president of Youku, recognized the value of "short and fine dramas", "When the overall creative ability cannot be improved overnight, we choose to use 'condensed' and 'rolled' first, wring out the water, retaining the essence, and improving the rhythm." ”

iQIYI's internal meeting at the end of last year also broke the news that in the future, it will control the number of large productions with more than 16 episodes, and instead promote the development of Chinese dramas with shorter single episodes or 0-0 episodes of high-quality short dramas.

Tencent Video speaks with action, and among its start-up dramas at the beginning of this year, "Drunken Dream", "Five Missing Teenagers" and "Lost Wall" are all suspenseful short dramas, accounting for the highest proportion in each genre.

Where will the long-form drama industry go in this revolution? Maybe we'll see.