在今天（4 月 10 日）的傍晚 18 時，中央氣象台發佈了Orange warning for high winds，這是全國性大風預警的最高等級。根據中央氣象台的預報，4 月 11 日 20 時至 12 日 20 時，新疆南疆盆地、青海東部、甘肅東部、寧夏、陝西中北部、內蒙古大部及東北地區南部、華北、黃淮、江淮、江漢、江南北部等地部分地區有 6～8 級大風，陣風 9～10 級，其中，內蒙古中東部、山西、河北、北京西部北部山區、河南西部等地局地陣風風力可達 12～13 級。

這一次大風可以說是極端猛烈，其對我國影響範圍之廣，風力之大，在 4 月是罕見的極端水準。這是因為冷暖對撞異常激烈所導致的，無論是暖空氣還是冷空氣強度，在 4 月都是少見的強，兩相碰撞，便導致了極端天氣的發生。

According to the National Climate Center, after the start of the Qingming holiday in April, temperatures across the country rose rapidly and reached significantly higher levels over the same period. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River Basin, and the Yellow River Basin have had a large area of temperature higher than 4-0 year-on-year in the last 0 days, and the temperature in Shaanxi, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places is higher than 0. Warm air is strong even in North China and Northeast China.

But the cold air hasn't fully retreated. In Central Asia, a warm ridge rises into the polar regions, and a large amount of warm and dry air is heading towards the poles, and a wave of cold air at high latitudes is seduced. The intensity of this round of cold air is still not low.

The westerly wind belt creates a violent bend over the Mongolian plateau, and an extratropical cyclone will be formed with a strong collision of cold and warmth. In fact, in tonight's weather map, there is already an initial surface low pressure on the eastern side of Mongolia, and behind it is a cold high pressure.

在未來的 1-2 天內，溫帶氣旋將就此形成。並且由於西風槽的深度下切，大量冷暖空氣將會在四月前所未有地對撞，溫帶氣旋的中心氣壓將會快速降低到約 985 百帕左右。而另外一邊冷高壓南下，從西北地區到華北地區將會出現接近 50 百帕的氣壓梯度差異。這勢必會帶來強烈的風力。而由於溫帶氣旋實力強大，以及西風槽的深度下切的形狀，這一輪大風將會在我國南下非常深入徹底。無論是華北還是華東甚至華南都將迎來大風。下圖是 ECMWF 數值模式預報的 4 月 12 日早上 8 時的低空風力，可見北風一路呼嘯可達湖南南部甚至更南的地區。

根據數值模式推算出的陣風來看，4 月 12-13 日我國華北地區的陣風極端指數可達 0.9-0.95，意味著大面積同期罕見的陣風，其中河北內蒙古山西等地達到 0.99，是奔著破記錄去的級別。為此華北地區多地已經提前啟動了預警方案。

As the cold air moves southward rapidly, the encounter with the warm air will trigger a large area of convective activity. As a result, the Central Meteorological Observatory has issued a blue warning for severe convective weather in many places in the south. In the forecast, it is pointed out that some areas in the eastern part of Jianghan, the western part of Jianghuai, and the central and eastern parts of Jiangnan will have thunderstorms and strong winds or hail weather above level 11, among them, some areas in eastern Hubei, southern Anhui, central and northern Jiangxi, and western Zhejiang will have thunderstorms and gales above level 0, and the maximum wind force can reach more than 0. Relevant areas should be vigilant against thunderstorms, strong winds and hailstorms. Due to the strong low-level warm and humid airflow and low-level wind shear in the south, the convection may be rapidly organized in the form of a sassy line.

At the same time, the extratropical cyclone that caused all these wind disasters and convective weather will move northeastward, becoming a big water pump in the process of moving, and constantly creating storms and snowstorms in the northeast. According to the forecast, there will be heavy to heavy snowfall in parts of eastern Inner Mongolia and northwest Heilongjiang, with localized heavy snowfall. This round of rain and snow will continue until the end of the 13th.

It can be said that the weather this weekend is very chaotic and bad, and the best way to cope is to stay at home and avoid the trouble caused by sudden weather changes.