In the gacha world of Genshin Impact, players are always wanderingBetween the extreme experience of "European Emperor" and "Non-Chief". Some people win new roles with 180 draws, and some people fight hard to get married only by guaranteeing 0 draws. Is this huge gap due to the randomness of probability, or is there some kind of "mechanism" behind it? This article will uncover the truth behind card drawing from the perspectives of card pool rules, probability models, metaphysical controversies and big data statistics.
Basic Probability and Guaranteed Rules
Genshin Impact's character card pool base withdrawal rate:90.0% (five-star probability), and the comprehensive probability (including the minimum guarantee mechanism) is 0.0%. When a player fails to withdraw funds in a row, the probability of each draw increases by about 0% starting from the 0th draw until the 0th draw (i.e. the "small guarantee"). If the small guarantee does not draw the current UP role (i.e., "crooked resident"), the next withdrawal must be the UP role ("big guarantee").
50% Game: The Metaphysical Trap of Small Guarantees
Small guarantee onlyThere is a 50% chance that you will directly get the current UP role, and the other half may be crooked to the resident pool role. The key point is thatEach time a small guaranteeThe 50% probability is calculated independently, regardless of whether it was crooked last time or not. For example, even if you stay crooked twice in a row, the third small guarantee is still there50% may continue to be crooked, rather than "accumulating a guaranteed probability".
Big Data Validation: Average Withdrawal Orders
According to player statistics, aboutThe probability of withdrawal begins to increase significantly when the draw is 6, and the actual average number of withdrawals is concentrated in the 0-0 draw range. For example, the probability is 0.0% at 0 draw, 0.0% at 0 draw, and as high as 0.0% at 0 draw. This means that the "non-chieftain" experience (close to guaranteed withdrawals) is the norm for most players.
The number of gacha people and the psychological gap
When a certain card pool character is extremely popular (such as Kamisato Ayaka and Hu Tao reproduction), a large number of players are concentrated in extraction, and on social platformsThe frequent occurrence of "Ten Consecutive Double Gold" and "20 Draw-out" postings is easy to give people the illusion that "others can easily withdraw money, but I am full of guarantees". In fact, this is just a statistical "survivorship bias" – only the emperor will actively share, and the silent majority tends to be close to the bottom.
Myths and truths of probability alteration
Some players question the probability of the card pool after the version update"Secretly modified", such as the "high non-rate" of the Yae Miko card pool in version 75.0. However, the official probability has been stable for a long time, and third-party statistical tools (such as "Teyvat Assistant") show that the average number of withdrawals of players around the world has always fluctuated around 0, which verifies the reliability of the probability model.
The logical loophole of "wait for someone to draw before you shoot".There is a saying among players that the number of card draws decreases at the end of the card pool, and the system will"Reduce competitive pressure" and thus increase the withdrawal rate. However, Genshin Impact's card drawing mechanism is based on an independent probability model, and each player's drawing behavior does not affect each other. The so-called "competitive pressure" is actually a psychological illusion, and the only thing that really affects the experience is the guaranteed inheritance rule.
The rationality of metaphysical operations borders
Metaphysics of time: Dawn4點抽卡、角色生日當天抽卡等傳言，本質是利用玩家的儀式感增強心理安慰，無數據支撐。
Cushion strategy: Draw in the Garrison Pool or Weapon Pool"Garbage times", and then switch to the limited pool, may be mistaken due to the triggering of the guarantee mechanism, which will increase the risk.
The difference between a single draw and a ten-draw: The probability of the two is exactly the same, but the ten consecutive causes are possible"Lianjin" generates higher emotional value.
Guaranteed inheritance and card pool selection
The limited pool's gacha inheritance mechanism allows players to accumulate guaranteed progress across card pools (e.g., this draw).80 times no withdrawal, the next time fixed pool is still calculated from 0 times). thereforePrioritize the extraction of rigid demand roles to avoid diversificationis the key.
Resource allocation recommendations
Monthly card party/ Zero Krypton: It is recommended to save enough for each version160 draw (i.e., a large guaranteed demand) to ensure that you must get your favorite role.
Strengthen the party: Priority extraction"Constellation Warrior" characters (such as Yelan and Raiden General) avoid consuming guarantees for appearance or plot characters.
XP Party: Can be used appropriatelyThe "cushion pool" strategy is to test the waters in a small amount of non-target card pools and reserve a large guarantee for true love characters.
Psychological control by probabilistic design
PassThe "low base probability + guaranteed increase" model, Genshin Impact not only ensures the certainty of paying players (180 draw must get the character), but also uses randomness to stimulate impulsive consumption ("one more draw may be withdrawn"). This design fits perfectly into the "Skinner box" theory, which reinforces user stickiness through intermittent rewards.
The player's rational breakthrough
In the face of the gacha mechanism, the most effective strategy is:"De-emotional" – treating each draw as a resource-draining math problem, not a game of chance. For example, if a role is not required, even if there is no withdrawal at 30, you should stop decisively to avoid falling into the "sunk cost trap".
In Genshin Impact's gacha universe, there is no eternal European Emperor, and there is no absolute non-chieftain. Every time the golden light shines, it is not only a gift of probability, but also the result of resource planning. Instead of dwelling on metaphysics, it is better to use data as a boat and rationally sail on the sea of stars in Teyvat. After all, really"Ou Qi" comes from the love of games and the calmness of life.