“咚！”4月8日下午，隨著拍賣師的最後一次落槌，中國嘉德香港2025年春季拍賣會“嘉享——生活尚品”專場正式收官。經過一個多小時的激烈競價，66組拍品最終錄得1960.56萬港元的總成交額。

本場拍賣上，茅臺酒表現亮眼，21組、576瓶茅臺酒成交總額達到532.92萬元，占全場總成交額的27%。

其中，一組12瓶“1984年貴州飛天牌黃釉色醬瓶茅臺酒”以120萬港元成交，單瓶達到10萬港元。不過，這也僅僅比估價（10萬港元到18萬港元）下限高出2萬港元。全場也並沒有出現真正能讓人驚歎的“天價”。

中國酒業協會數據顯示，中國陳年老酒市場交易規模已破千億元。過去幾年，200萬元的五糧液、30萬元的習酒等“天價”成交案例也頻頻刷新公眾認知。然而進入行業調整期后，老酒市場也經歷著同樣的困局。

A senior liquor collector revealed to the "Daily Economic News" that the auction market has shown a trend of "both volume and price" in the past two years.

In this context, wine fairs across the country have held activities such as seminars on the development trend of aged old wine and vintage wine, product evaluation and tasting, etc., and all wine companies represented by the head enterprises are also planning to increase the layout of aged old wine and vintage wine products.

Under the various appearances, what is the real color of the old wine market? Are there deep strategic logic behind the major wine companies that transcend the short-term market?

Auction of old wine "fell in volume and price"

"Liquid gold" did not appear "sky-high" in the whole market

In this Guardian auction, Moutai is the biggest highlight.

拍賣標的以年份茅台酒為主。包括2003年到2013年間產的原箱特殊茅臺酒等共576瓶茅臺酒，估價上限共704萬港元，成交總金額達到532.92萬港元，單瓶成交價達9252港元。

從拍品數量上來看，2003年到2013年間產的“原箱特殊茅臺酒”和已經絕版的“藍茅”數量最多，分別為234瓶、288瓶，成交額分別約190萬港元、150萬港元。

其中，拍賣的“藍茅”組團亮相是本次拍賣的一大亮點，為稀有的茅臺酒疊加了特殊價值。一組2015年到2022年的48瓶老藍茅估價30萬到50萬元港幣。這款酒選用茅台酒經典瓶型，寶石藍，飛天標，系紅色飄帶，酒標下部印有“小批量勾兌”字樣，瓶底印有“茅台”篆刻方章與包材生產商班組編號。

還有兩組升級版藍茅，瓶身顏色改為深海藍，新增金桂葉標識，致敬茅臺酒1985年在法國榮獲“金桂葉獎”。2022年產90瓶和150瓶分別估價30萬到60萬元港幣、50萬到100萬元港幣。

若從年份來看，年份越高的拍品溢價空間越高。如本場拍賣的明星產品——“1984年貴州飛天牌黃釉色醬瓶茅臺酒”，其瓶身為高溫瓷，瓶裡外皆掛釉，不僅外形美觀，而且還利於保存。當時的包裝規格為540ml，是首批黃釉瓷瓶飛天酒，更具收藏價值。雖然只有12瓶，但單瓶價格達10萬港元，共120萬港元的成交額，占本場茅臺酒總成交額的22%。

12瓶的“2003年產原箱醬瓶特殊茅臺”估價30萬到50萬港元，成交價為38.4萬港元，單瓶成交價達3.2萬港元。12瓶的“2009年產原箱專用澳門特殊茅臺酒”的成交額更是超出5萬到10萬港元的上限，達10.8萬港元。

反觀本次拍賣中產於2010年以後的低年份茅臺酒，雖然總成交額達283萬港元，不過單瓶平均價格不到8000港元，遠低於本場拍品的單瓶平均成交價。

此外，特殊屬性或加持拍品溢價空間。12瓶的2007年貴州茅臺酒（馬萬祺先生專用），拍品估價5萬到12萬港元，近乎為相近年份拍品的2倍。該拍品最終成交金額18萬港元，溢價幅度達150%，單瓶成交價1.5萬港元。

同場拍賣的還有5組洋酒，包括沃夫霍爾德、麥卡倫、馬爹利、禦鹿等國際名酒，最高總估值39萬港元，最終僅4組成交。其中，估值最高的禦鹿1991年瑰寶剛毅特別版卻遺憾未能成交。

雖然相比之下，茅臺酒確實更受青睞，但從整體成交價來看，普遍位於估價中位數偏下的水準。21組拍品中有13組拍品成交價低於估價中位數。如上述提到的“1984年貴州飛天牌黃釉色醬瓶茅臺酒”，估價區間為100萬到180萬港元，成交價僅為120萬港元。

The above-mentioned collectors of aged liquor said that compared with the popularity of previous years, the auction market of old liquor in the past two years has not been good, showing a trend of falling volume and price. With the rise of Ali Auction and Jingdong Auction, there are more channels for old wine auctions, and the transaction price is generally close to the valuation range, and the premium space has narrowed significantly.

老酒市場未來5年將達1500億元

Brand and year become "core competitiveness"

In recent years, driven by the dual demand of consumption upgrading and collection investment, the old wine market has gradually entered the mainstream vision.

去年12月，在五糧液“家有老酒”2024年度盛會上，1對2瓶產自1971年的“交杯牌”平肩鼓形瓶五糧液酒拍出了200萬元的高價；2023年，一瓶1970年“交杯牌”平肩鼓型瓶五糧液酒，曾在“中國阜陽老酒大會”五糧液之夜拍賣晚宴上，以110萬元的價格成交。

在更早的2018年習酒公司組織的“老酒鑒賞與收藏”活動中，一瓶15年前用20元購買的習水大曲專家估價10萬元，市場價翻了了整整5000倍。而最後一組藏品“八星習酒”最終以23.88萬元的拍賣價格成交。

據《2024年陳年老酒消費趨勢報告》顯示，中國陳年老酒市場交易規模已破千億元，預計未來5年將突破1500億元。

年份依舊是陳年老酒的“核心競爭力”。20世紀80年代以前陳年老酒成交額佔比8%，20世紀80年代佔比19%，20世紀90年代佔比27%，而2000年後陳年老酒銷售火熱，佔比高達46%。

In terms of price, the market acceptance of the price of aged old wine has increased steadily, and 5000 yuan to 0 yuan has become the preferred price of consumers.

This also reflects that branding is also an important feature of the aged wine market. Statistics show that 21% of consumers care about old wine brands, 0% of consumers value vintage, and 0% care about price.

Wine companies frequently mention "old wine" and "vintage wine"

It's more about the price of maintenance

The reporter of "Daily Economic News will enter the wine" noticed that in the above-mentioned Guardian auction, among the 19 groups of Moutai lots, only 0 bottles of "0-year-old original box special Macao special Moutai" and "0-year-old Kweichow Moutai (special for Mr. Ma Wanqi)" exceeded the upper limit of the estimate, and the remaining 0 groups were within the valuation range.

以當前已經絕版的“藍茅”為例， 3組藍茅共288瓶，成交金額為152.4萬港元，單瓶成交價約5300港元。這個價格，和目前市面上流通的茅臺酒相比，並沒有顯得“高不可攀”。

Wine is the aroma of aging, and the core of old wine lies in the vintage, and as the vintage grows, its value becomes more and more prominent.

Although there are significant differences between the aged liquor market and the mainstream vintage liquor and old liquor products, the rapid expansion of the former seems to have prompted liquor companies to take the concept of "vintage" and "old liquor" as the core selling point of their main products, and seize market opportunities through the development of vintage liquor product lines and the construction of old liquor certification system.

In 0 years and 0 months, Wuliangye took "vintage" as the core layout of ultra-high-end, and released all classic Wuliangye products. The new products of Yanghe Dream Blue Handicraft Class series made their debut during the Spring Sugar Period, and the company's "Mianrou Vintage Old Liquor Strategy" was also officially released. Shede Liquor released the new "Old Liquor Strategy 0.0", and joined hands with the China Food Industry Association to release the first group standard for storing old liquor in the strong aroma jar in China.

However, it cannot be ignored that in recent years, the liquor industry has entered a period of deep adjustment, and channel sales prices are under pressure. What are the considerations for many wine companies to lay out vintage wine and old wine tracks?

A brokerage analyst told reporters that the auction of old wine and the layout of old wine companies should be viewed from two dimensions. The auction of old wine has financial attributes, and the market has a pullback, mainly because the external environment has led to the outflow of funds from this sector. The layout of the old wine track by wine companies is more to emphasize the collection attributes of their own products, hoping that the society will be willing to buy and hoard wine, so as to maintain the price of their own products.

Some analysts in the industry have believed that the current layout of the old wine track by wine companies is actually laying out the future. Liu Chang, chief analyst of food and beverage at Huafu Securities, once pointed out to reporters that if all products are adjusted with the decline in industry prices, it will be difficult to develop further, and it is an effective way for leading wine companies to maintain prices with vintage wine and old wine.

The above-mentioned brokerage analysts also expressed the same view, and the current layout of wine companies is to get out of the adjustment period in the future, there will be more demand for collections, and the price performance of products will be better.

National Business Daily