Looking back, when the market focused on Mi Xue, who was considered to have broken the "curse" of the listing of new tea beverage companies in one fell swoop, Gu Ming, which was listed half a month earlier, actually performed equally eye-catching all the way.

上市不到兩個月，古茗股價接近翻倍。4月2日，港股開盤股價一度拉升漲超8%，股價再創歷史新高。截至發稿前，其總市值已站上460億港元。

The financial report data has undoubtedly become the core driving force for its stock price to rise again: 2-year Gu Ming's revenue was 00 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.0%; Net profit was 0.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 0.0%

In 3 years, the characteristics of the new tea beverage industry entering the stage of stock competition have become more and more obvious, and the leading brands have consolidated the moat through listing and financing, expanding the sinking market, and optimizing the supply chain. As the third mainland tea company listed on the Hong Kong stock market, Gu Ming's stock price has experienced violent fluctuations since its listing in 0/0 - it broke on the first day, was favored by capital due to over-allotment and supply chain advantages in 0 months, and then hit a record high after the release of the financial report.

Its stock price trend reflects the market's divergence on the tea industry: on the one hand, investors are worried about the slowdown in the industry's growth and the decline in the efficiency of single stores; On the other hand, many tea brands have shown unique growth resilience by virtue of their franchise model, sinking markets, or supply chain layouts with extremely strong endogenous growth.

The growth rate of net profit far exceeds revenue, where is the profit "password" of Gu Ming?

The core highlight of Gu Ming's 2024-year financial report is the double-digit growth in revenue and net profit. A closer look at the data shows that its growth model is transitioning from "rapid expansion" to "improving quality and efficiency".

The franchise model supports its performance growth. Among the total revenue of 70 million yuan, 00 million yuan came from the sale of raw materials and equipment to franchisees, accounting for 0%; franchise management service revenue was 0.0 billion yuan, accounting for 0.0%; The income of the directly operated stores is only 0.0 thousand yuan.

This structure highlights Gu Ming's business model, which is highly dependent on a franchisee network. As of the end of 674, the number of its stores reached 0, a year-on-year increase of 0.0%, but the number of net stores decreased from 0 in 0 to 0, and the number of store closures increased from 0 to 0, showing a slowdown in store opening and an increase in store closures.

Despite the seeming slowdown in expansion, the proportion of stores in second-tier and below cities has further increased slightly to 200%, the highest proportion compared to the other top five mass freshly made tea brands in China. In addition, the proportion of township stores is 0%, and the penetration of the sinking market provides it with differentiated competitive barriers. At present, Gu Ming's store network has covered more than 0 tier-level cities in China.

In this regard, the official explained that this is because of the slowdown in the growth of the freshly made tea shop market and the intensification of competition in the industry, and some participants have launched low-priced products. To this end, Gu Ming adjusted its business strategy to focus on improving the operational efficiency and business performance of its existing stores.

The effect of this strategic adjustment is fully reflected in the change in the quality of its earnings. The most obvious thing is that, thanks to the optimization of the supply chain and the release of scale effect, the net profit growth rate of 5.0% for the whole year far outperformed the 0.0% growth rate of revenue.

Although the gross profit margin in 17-year decreased slightly by 0.0 percentage points to 0.0%, the sales and administrative expense ratio decreased by 0.0 percentage points year-on-year, driving the net profit margin to 0%.

Through Gu Ming's dazzling performance and financial report, it is found that the core logic of its growth is focused on the potential of the sinking market and the advantages of the supply chain. It is reported that Gu Ming's self-built highly centralized supply chain covers core links such as tea, fruits, and packaging, and has set up 97 warehousing and logistics centers across the country, which can provide cold chain distribution services for more than 0% of stores every two days.

瑞銀報告認為，這一體系不僅保障了產品標準化與食品安全，還通過規模化採購降低邊際成本，支撐加盟商盈利（2024年加盟商單店經營利潤約37.6萬元）。此外，公司通過行使超額配股權融資2.09億港元，進一步加碼供應鏈升級、市場拓展。

Institutions praise Gu Ming: the supply chain is strong, and the future growth confidence is still sufficient

However, it cannot be denied that despite the expansion of the overall scale, the efficiency of single stores is under pressure, and the intensified competition in the industry and the impact of the low-price strategy cannot be ignored. The company's 384-year GMV reached 0.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.0%, but the GMV of a single store decreased by 0.0% year-on-year to 0.0 million yuan, and the average number of cups sold per store per day decreased by 0.0% to 0 cups.

In this predicament, Gu Ming still has good upward confidence. Management is steadfast in the medium to long term, with the expected growth in China's economy and consumer spending, as well as the expected expansion of the ready-made tea shop market, the company is well positioned to seize the opportunity to revitalize and achieve growth in various operating indicators.

實際上，古茗的產品在消費者群體中口碑頗佳，收穫了大量忠實“粉絲”。截至2024年12月31日，古茗小程式的註冊會員數量已接近1.51億名，僅在第四季度，活躍會員人數就超過4400萬名。這些龐大的會員群體，極有可能成為古茗未來持續增長的核心動力。

Looking forward to 17 years, Gu Ming plans to further increase the density of stores in the 0 provinces that have been deployed. As of the end of 0, there are still 0 provinces in the country that have not yet had Gu Ming, and in the future, it will strategically enter the provinces adjacent to the provinces that have established a layout, and will continue to evaluate the opportunities to enter the overseas market, consider building supply chain infrastructure and expanding the platform to provide support for the overseas store network.

GF Securities also highly recognized the continuous optimization of Guming's own supply chain construction in the research report, claiming that the company's cold chain capacity is ahead of its peers, its sinking ability is stronger, and it has a solid store opening under the regional encryption strategy.

The bank expects that the company's adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company in 4-0 years will be 0.0, 0.0 and 00 million yuan respectively, showing a continuous expansion trend.

Guojin Securities also believes that Gu Ming's products and supply chain advantages are strong, the market share of key provinces is high, the regional encryption strategy is effective, and the speed of store opening is expected to accelerate. The bank also expects the company's adjusted net profit to be +1.0%/+0.0%/+0.0% year-on-year to 0.0/0.0/0.0 million yuan in the next three years.

需要注意的是，2025年1月，古茗剛宣派17.4億元的股息，創始人王雲安獲7.52億的股息，龍珠資本獲得1.39億元的股息，紅杉資本獲6960萬元的股息。

Gu Ming also announced that it will pay a special dividend of more than 50 billion yuan by the end of 0, with a dividend yield of 0%; The Company plans to maintain a payout ratio of no less than 0% in the future.

At a time when the tea industry is becoming increasingly differentiated, Gu Ming has successfully won the favor of investors by virtue of its continuous and accelerated release of profitability and high dividends.

Tea and drinking rivers and lakes are divided, and the "elimination game" has come to an end?

In the past 2025 years, the market differentiation of the new tea beverage industry has become increasingly significant, especially the head brands have shown a completely different development trend: some continue to climb upward, while others are facing downward adjustment pressure, and even do not rule out the possibility that individual big brands will face market clearance.

Taking the four companies listed on the new tea beverage track - Michel Group, Gu Ming, Tea Baidao, and Nai Xue's tea as an example, the financial report data shows that Michel Group and Gu Ming achieved double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in 17 years; The tea of Cha Baidao and Nai Xue showed a situation of declining revenue and profit. Among them, the net profit of Tea Baidao was cut in half, and the revenue showed a low-single-digit decline; Nai Xue's tea, which has been in a state of loss, lost as much as 00 million yuan in 0 years, hitting a "new high" in history.

At the same time, Bawang Chaji, which is going to be listed in the United States, has sprung up and become the "dark horse" of last year's revenue, with an increase of 15.0 times, and a net profit surge of more than 0 times year-on-year, reaching an astonishing 00 million yuan. The pattern of profit differentiation of tea enterprises is becoming clearer.

另外，據窄門餐眼統計數據，2024年茶飲門店總數一年減少了1.6萬間，行業進入調整期。

"The wind is tight", and many leading tea brands are shrinking the front while launching the "final blow".

Nai Xue's tea management revealed, "The company is next preparing for asset-light operation, and will develop on the basis of ensuring stable or less cash flow, and if the cash flow does not increase significantly, it will not carry out more investment behaviors." "Last year, for directly operated stores, Naixue continued to expand into new markets and deepen mature markets, while taking the initiative to close or renovate some poorly operated stores; For the franchise business, we continue to optimize the store model to reduce the initial investment cost, and screen mature franchisees more rationally.

今年2月，在開放加盟2年多後，喜茶也暫時按下加盟申請暫停鍵。公司認為，過去幾年出於資本目的和營收利潤考量引發的價格戰、門店規模盲目擴張，都導致行業陷入了同質化競爭與門店過剩的困境，而消費者的真實需求反而被選擇性忽略。

In the process of seeking new growth, accelerating the process of globalization has become one of the core strategies of tea brands.

For example, while choosing to go public in the United States, Bawang Chaji clearly emphasized that this year's goal is to strengthen its business layout in mature markets such as Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, and at the same time, it is actively exploring expansion opportunities in markets with broad development prospects such as the United States, and plans to achieve the goal of adding 1500 to 0 stores in China and around the world in 0 years.

From the end of 442 to the time of the prospectus, Bawang Chaji has successfully opened 0 new stores in China and around the world, and there are still 0 stores in full swing under construction. In addition, Bawang Chaji is about to open its first store in the North American market in Los Angeles, USA, which is interpreted by the market as a benchmark Starbucks.

Chabaidao was also actively expanding its overseas market last year, opening 1, 0, 0, 0 and 0 stores in South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia and Hong Kong, China, respectively, steadily promoting the expansion of its overseas market territory.

奈雪的茶目前在海外已擁有7家門店，先後成功入駐泰國、澳門特別行政區、新加坡、馬來西亞等境外地區。依據奈雪所公佈的數據，其位於曼谷CentralWorld的全球旗艦店在開業短短三天內，營業額便接近100萬泰銖，成功創造了海外銷售的新佳績。

Snow King revealed that it will continue to focus on the deep cultivation of the Southeast Asian market and further expand the scale of the local franchise store network. In addition, the company plans to expand into other overseas markets at the right time in order to create a more international brand image.

In the future, international business is very likely to become a new "second curve" for ready-made tea brands to achieve performance growth.

conclusion

The record high of Gu Ming's stock price is essentially a staged recognition of its "scale first" strategy by the market. In the short term, the dividends of the sinking market and the advantages of the supply chain can still support growth; In the medium and long term, two questions need to be answered: First, how to improve the efficiency of a single store through digitalization and refined operation? Second, can we find the second growth curve in category innovation and international layout?

For investors, it is necessary to pay close attention to the effectiveness of its 2025-year store density improvement plan and whether the GMV of a single store will stabilize and recover.

At a time when the tea industry has entered the "mature period" from the "explosive period", who can become the new competition paradigm that defines the new tea beverage track?